|Is dating really a numbers game?— by hownowdesign via Flickr|
decided to evaluate my dating prospects by applying something everyone
with a liberal arts graduate degree loves: math! This was spurred by an
evaluation of my messages on OkCupid – a dating website for those committed
enough to make an online profile, but not committed enough to actually pay for
it. I have 256 messages from guys
since I joined, and I’ve replied to 14; a reply rate of slightly under five percent. There are 8,336,6971 people in New York, and, on average, 49.22 percent of the population is male – that means that if I’m only interested in
five percent of them, it still leaves 205,082 men available to me.
|Is he a prospect?—by Ed Yourdon via Flickr|
But wait – not all of those men are
available. Research suggests 1/10 men are attracted to men (and I’ve on
occasion wondered if this wasn’t the vast majority of men in certain areas of
NYC) So that only leaves 184,574 (and a half!) men I could date.
average guy lives to age 75. So (and this what republicans may know as ‘fuzzy
math.’) there are 2,460 men/boys of each age in the city – 2,460 20-year-olds,
2,460 21-year-olds, 2,460 22-year-olds, etc. My age range is (and this is
broad, because I’m all about salt-and-pepper hair) 28 to 40. So now, with a 12-year age range, that leaves 29,531.91 potential matches. I guess the .91 must
be a short guy.
date a married guy, so that rules out, um, a bunch. The average age of marriage in the US is 29 for men, but people get married later in NYC – hedge funds and
vodka-launch parties are more important. So, even if 50 percent of the men in my
age range are single (and I think that’s generous,) I’m now down to 14,766. For
comparison, that means every eligible man for me could fit inside Madison
Square Garden, with plenty of elbow room.
|This is still a lot of men to choose from–via wikipedia|
basics. There are a few points on which I’m not quite ready to compromise. It’s
very important to me that the person I date be politically aware (45 percent
of the population, so down to 6,645 men) and democratic (68 percent of the NYC population; down to 4452 men.)
has to be a skier; a sport enjoyed by a staggering four percent of the
population. Ouch. 4452 multiplied by .04 is 178 men.
|My man has to be a skier–-by jsmjr via Flickr|
qualities I was hoping I could have:
than, say, half of all other guys: 89 guys are left for me.
dives, watches zombie movies, has a dog, rocks facial scruff and enjoys
modern art? I’m not bothering to
calculate, because the statistics will probably suggest that he doesn’t exist;
at least not in the tri-state area.
didn’t even take into account the percentage of men who already have a
|How many New York men already have a girlfriend?–by videocrab via Flickr|
post, because I clearly need to revisit some of my ignored OkCupid messages.
Wikipedia, the most accurate and obsessively-updated website on the planet.